US and Iran near deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions

## Market Snapshot

The “US Iran Agreement/Ceasefire Extension” market shows a 70% YES probability for a new agreement by May 26. Meanwhile, the WTI Crude Oil price market indicates only a 1% probability of prices reaching $150 in May 2026. These movements reflect recent news about a potential US-Iran agreement.

## Key Takeaways

– Markets suggest increasing probability of a US-Iran agreement by May 26, consistent with the recent news report. – Pricing indicates a significant decrease in expectations for a spike in WTI Crude Oil prices, consistent with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. – The news appears irrelevant to the “Iranian Demands Trump Will Agree To” market, as it does not involve Trump.

## Article Body

A report from the Jerusalem Post indicates that the United States and Iran are on the verge of signing a comprehensive deal that will significantly impact regional geopolitics. The agreement reportedly includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting US oil sanctions on Iran, and ending the Lebanon conflict. This development emerges as a significant diplomatic breakthrough, potentially easing tensions and impacting global oil markets. The deal, expected to be finalized within 60 days, aligns with ongoing diplomatic efforts by key figures such as President Joe Biden and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

## Market Interpretation

The potential agreement appears highly relevant to the “US Iran Agreement/Ceasefire Extension” market, suggesting a strong likelihood of a YES outcome. The impact is classified as high due to the direct response in the market’s pricing. Conversely, the WTI Crude Oil market reflects a lower probability of price spikes, indicating market expectations for reduced volatility in oil prices following the deal.

## What to Watch

Key indicators to monitor include official announcements from the US and Iranian governments regarding the deal’s specifics. Additionally, any statements from President Biden or President Raisi could provide further insights. The response of global oil markets and potential shifts in geopolitical alliances will also be crucial in assessing the deal’s broader impact. Observers should remain attentive to reports from credible sources like Reuters and Bloomberg for updates.

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WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 bearish

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