Adm. Cooper visit signals continued US blockade in Strait of Hormuz

## Market Snapshot

The market on whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of June is currently priced at a low likelihood of normalization. The probability of Donald Trump announcing the lifting of the blockade by May 31 has decreased, currently priced at 28.5% YES, down from 40% a day ago.

## Key Takeaways

– The visit by Adm. Brad Cooper to the USS Milius appears to suggest continued enforcement of the blockade, impacting the chances of traffic normalization. – Market pricing suggests a decreased likelihood of Trump announcing the lifting of the blockade by the end of May. – The current news does not indicate any move towards a formal declaration of war by the United States.

## Article Body

Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, visited the USS Milius, a guided-missile destroyer, reinforcing the United States’ commitment to the ongoing naval blockade against Iran. The visit is part of the broader Operation Epic Fury, a joint U.S.-Israeli military initiative that began in late February following the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The blockade, which started in mid-April, has hindered Iran’s oil revenue significantly, with numerous vessels redirected or seized. Despite Iran’s warnings of potential military actions if the blockade persists, the U.S. maintains its stance, using the blockade as a negotiating tool in nuclear discussions.

## Market Interpretation

The visit by Adm. Cooper is supportive of a continued blockade, consistent with a NO outcome for the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by June. This development has a moderate impact on the market, as it suggests ongoing enforcement and reduces the likelihood of a near-term resolution. The market on Trump’s potential announcement of lifting the blockade by May 31 has also seen a decline in YES pricing, reflecting the reaffirmation of the blockade’s importance.

## What to Watch

Observers should monitor any further statements or actions from key actors such as President Trump, CENTCOM, and Iranian officials regarding the blockade. Developments in diplomatic talks, particularly involving Pakistan or other international mediators, could influence market perceptions. Additionally, any significant military movements or announcements from either side may alter the current trajectory and impact market pricing.

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Trump's hormuz blockade announcement bearish

29% FLAT