Altcoins See Deepest Spot Selling Since 2020 as Season Index Nears Trigger

Altcoin sell pressure on spot exchanges has fallen to its deepest level since 2020, marking 15 straight months of net selling across the market outside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Yet a separate CryptoQuant gauge points in the opposite direction. The platform’s 180-day Altcoin Season Index is edging toward a reading that historically signals the start of an altcoin season.

Two CryptoQuant Signals Pull in Opposite Directions

The metric tracks the cumulative difference between buy and sell volume for altcoins, excluding BTC and ETH. Its drop to the most negative level since 2020 indicates sustained net selling pressure on spot exchanges.

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Cryptoquant Altcoin Spot Buy and Sell Volume Difference Chart Showing 5-Year Low in Altcoin Sell Pressure. Source: CryptoQuant

The indicator nearly returned to flat in early 2025. It then reversed and continued to decline over the following months. According to CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech,

“This is not a dip. It’s 15 months of continuous net selling on Spot Exchanges.”

The Altcoin Season Index offers the counterweight. CryptoQuant’s 180-day version is 18.48. According to an analyst, “altcoin season begins in earnest” once the indicator crosses 20. The gap suggests rotation building rather than running.

Analysts Split on Altcoin Season Prospects

Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, argued that many altcoins that suffered steep declines through 2025 and early 2026 may avoid setting new record lows. 

He said a large share of the market has already entered the cycle’s “depression” phase, a period when many investors exit while large holders quietly accumulate.

“The rise in BTC Dominance should come mainly from the top 20 altcoins and stablecoins. This does not mean that all altcoins are going to die. It means that capital will rotate in a very selective way,” he said.

In contrast, Crypto Kid takes the bearish side. The trader says a true altcoin season needs the kind of money printing that drove the 2020 and 2021 cycle. He placed that window around 2028 or 2029.

The two signals leave the near-term path unsettled. One shows altcoins under their heaviest sustained selling in five years. The other shows a rotation gauge approaching its trigger. The next move may hinge on whether selective accumulation or the wait for looser policy proves correct.

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