American labor market remains sturdy as job openings rise in July

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July on September 1, and the numbers paint a picture of a jobs market that refuses to buckle.

Job openings climbed by 89,000 in July to reach 7.271 million, keeping the openings rate steady at 4.4%. That followed a June figure of 7.182 million, itself a solid reading.

What the numbers actually say

Total hires came in at roughly 5.1 million for the month, flat from June. Total separations also held at 5.1 million, meaning the labor market absorbed roughly the same number of workers as it shed.

Quits held near 3.1 million, representing a 1.9% quit rate. A 1.9% rate suggests workers still think the market rewards voluntary departure, though it is cooler than the historic highs seen during the post-pandemic reshuffling years.

Layoffs and discharges hovered around 1.7 million, producing a 1.0% layoff rate.

The composition of those 7.271 million open positions shifted in ways worth noting. Durable goods manufacturing posted a jump of 76,000 new openings, the standout sector gain for the month. Professional and business services moved in the opposite direction, recording a drop of 188,000 in hires.

Why this reading matters right now

The JOLTS report is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauges of labor market tightness, and labor market tightness is one of the central arguments for keeping interest rates elevated. When job openings vastly outnumber available workers, employers compete on wages. When wages rise faster than productivity, inflation tends to follow.

The professional and business services hiring dip bears watching because that sector often acts as a leading indicator. One month’s data is not a trend, but it is a variable worth tracking in the months ahead.

The next significant labor market data point on the calendar is the monthly nonfarm payrolls report, which will fill in the demand side of the picture with actual job creation numbers rather than the intention-based signal that JOLTS provides.

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