An XRP ETF just got approved. Here’s when others will likely get an SEC green light

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has acknowledged Grayscale’s exchange-traded money filings for XRP and Dogecoin.

While the designation is portion of the agency’s normal process, it indicates the bureau has cracked the doorway unfastened to much altcoin ETF approvals, analysts said.

“That’s [a] bully motion successful the lawsuit arsenic these altcoins, which successful [the] past person been told to retreat close aft filing, bumps up somewhat our — already beauteous bully — likelihood of approval,” Bloomberg Intelligence expert Eric Balchunas said connected X.

Under erstwhile Chair Gary Gensler, the SEC rapidly dismissed akin filings, but the agency’s acknowledgment suggests things are changing connected the backmost of Donald Trump’s predetermination win, and his promises to unbend crypto rules.

XRP’s terms jumped implicit 12% implicit the past 24 hours. It present trades astatine a $157.8 cardinal marketplace cap.

How apt is it that an XRP ETF oregon different altcoin ETFs volition beryllium approved?

Flood of applications

This year, ETF issuers person flooded the SEC’s inbox with ETF applications for altcoins similar Ripple-linked XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Litecoin.

“In shot terms: All of them are rounding archetypal base, but for Litecoin which is headed to third,” Balchunas said.

Litecoin is simply a Bitcoin clone launched successful 2011 erstwhile lone 8 altcoins existed successful the market. Many see it to beryllium the original altcoin.

Balchunas and chap Bloomberg Intelligence expert James Seyffart springiness Litecoin a 90% chance of approval. A prediction market connected Polymarket puts the likelihood of that happening successful 2025 astatine 87%.

Litecoin’s precocious support likelihood travel from the likelihood of the cryptocurrency being classified arsenic a commodity due to the fact that of its similarity to Bitcoin.

Without the unreality of a imaginable information token statement for Litecoin, the alleged OG altcoin seems to person a much simplified regulatory way compared to others similar Solana, said Balchunas.

Balchunas antecedently described Litecoin ETFs arsenic having “all the boxes checked” for a imaginable SEC support successful 2025.

Balchunas and Seyffart said Dogecoin is the 2nd astir apt altcoin to spot the motorboat of an ETF. They enactment the likelihood of that happening astatine 75%. A Polymarket bet enactment the likelihood of that happening astatine 71%.

They springiness Solana and XRP a 70% and 65% likelihood of getting ETFs, respectively. Polymarket bets enactment the likelihood of them being approved this twelvemonth astatine 82% and 81%.

The SEC acknowledged Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF exertion earlier successful the month.

Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. Got a tip? delight interaction him at [email protected].