Bernstein forecasts $1T server market by 2028, boosts shipment estimates as AI infrastructure spending surges

Bernstein just dropped its Q2 2026 AI tracker report, and the firm projects the global server market will blow past $1 trillion by 2028, driven by accelerating AI infrastructure spending.

The numbers behind the forecast

Bernstein’s revised estimates show a 15% compound annual growth rate for total server shipments through 2028, with GPU AI servers growing faster at a 22% CAGR over the same period.

The 8-GPU equivalent server category shows particularly sharp growth. Bernstein expects shipments to jump 48% in 2026 alone, with rack shipments forecast at 61,000 units this year and climbing to 88,000 units in 2027.

Total planned and in-construction data center investment now sits at approximately $1.2 trillion. Cloud provider capex estimates have climbed roughly 15%, reaching about $1.1 trillion slated for 2027.

On the chip side, ASICs are projected to represent about 45% of all CoWoS-based AI chip shipments. Google’s TPU shipments alone are expected to grow approximately 90% year-over-year in 2026.

Big tech is betting the farm

Meta’s Hyperion project has ballooned to $50 billion, up from $27 billion when it was announced in November 2025. SoftBank has committed up to $85 billion for 5 gigawatts of data center capacity in France. Nvidia and AMD are both expected to ship new hardware in Q4 2026.

The report was released on August 3, 2026.

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