Bernstein raises Robinhood price target to $160 as prediction markets become a billion-dollar bet

Robinhood is no longer just the app where your cousin bought GameStop. Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Gautam Chhugani bumped his price target on HOOD from $130 to $160, maintaining an Outperform rating, and the reasoning reads like a crypto-native’s wishlist: prediction markets, a proprietary blockchain, and perpetual futures.

The core thesis is straightforward. Robinhood’s push into emerging asset classes, particularly prediction markets through its joint venture Rothera and on-chain activity via Robinhood Chain, is reshaping what was once a simple stock-trading app into something that looks a lot more like a vertically integrated financial protocol.

The numbers behind the upgrade

Chhugani’s model projects prediction market revenue growing at a 64% compound annual growth rate, potentially hitting $1.7 billion by 2028. For context, that single revenue line would be larger than Robinhood’s entire net revenue was just a few years ago.

New asset classes, which include prediction markets and tokenized equities, are expected to contribute 18% of total revenue in 2027. By 2028, that share climbs to 23%.

The broader financial picture is equally aggressive. Chhugani projects 32% revenue growth, 47% EBITDA growth, and 49% EPS growth. His 2028 EPS estimate lands at $4.56, which he pegs at 39% above current consensus estimates. The $160 price target assumes a valuation of 35 times one-year forward price-to-earnings.

Rothera and the prediction market play

Rothera is Robinhood’s CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange and clearinghouse, and it represents a fundamental shift in strategy. Previously, Robinhood distributed event contracts through Kalshi, essentially acting as a storefront for someone else’s product. Now, Rothera lets Robinhood manufacture and sell its own contracts.

The difference matters enormously for economics. When you’re distributing someone else’s contracts, you’re clipping a referral fee. When you’re the exchange and the clearinghouse, you’re capturing the full spread. Rothera already routes 16% of Robinhood’s event contract volume, and that number is expected to grow as the platform shifts more activity in-house.

Robinhood hasn’t entirely cut ties with Kalshi. The partnership continues for certain contracts, suggesting a hybrid approach where Rothera handles the highest-margin products while Kalshi fills gaps in coverage.

Robinhood Chain enters the arena

The other pillar of Chhugani’s thesis is Robinhood Chain, which launched its mainnet in July 2026 and immediately posted eye-catching numbers. The chain processed over $3.1 billion in decentralized exchange volume in just seven days after launch.

The combination of Robinhood Chain with tokenized equities creates a potentially powerful flywheel. Users can trade traditional stocks, prediction market contracts, and on-chain assets from a single interface, with Robinhood capturing economics at every layer.

What this means for investors

The bull case here is that Robinhood is becoming the super-app for retail financial products, and that prediction markets and blockchain infrastructure are the next legs of growth after the company already proved it could expand beyond stock trading into crypto and options. If Chhugani’s revenue projections hold, the stock looks reasonably priced even at $160.

The bear case is equally clear. A 35x forward P/E multiple leaves very little room for execution stumbles. Prediction markets are still a nascent category with uncertain long-term demand curves. Regulatory risk hasn’t disappeared just because Rothera has a CFTC license. And $3.1 billion in DEX volume during a launch week could easily decline as novelty wears off.

Investors should also watch the competitive landscape carefully. Coinbase has its own Layer 2 in Base, which has had a significant head start. Kalshi, despite now being a partial competitor to its former distribution partner, continues expanding its own prediction market offerings.

The most telling metric to track over the next few quarters won’t be total DEX volume or prediction market revenue in isolation. It will be Robinhood’s revenue per user. If the company can meaningfully increase how much each customer generates by cross-selling prediction markets, perpetual futures, and on-chain products, then the Bernstein thesis holds. If these new products cannibalize existing activity without growing the pie, the 64% CAGR projection starts to look more like a sell-side fantasy than a forecast.

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