Bernstein Sees Bitcoin Reaching $300K – Here Is What Could Drive It

• Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and potentially peak near $300,000 during its next cycle in 2029.
• The analysts believe rising government debt and currency debasement could increase demand for scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
• Bernstein’s more bullish scenario sees BTC reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and potentially $500,000 in 2029.

Bernstein analysts are becoming increasingly bullish on Bitcoin, forecasting a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 before a potential cycle peak around $300,000 in 2029.

The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, argue that Bitcoin could benefit from a broader shift toward the “debasement trade” as governments struggle with rising debt and borrowing costs.

Currency Debasement Could Boost Bitcoin

Bernstein said the decades-long period of falling interest rates has ended while U.S. sovereign debt has climbed to roughly $40 trillion.

Higher yields increase government interest expenses, which can lead to larger deficits and additional borrowing. Bernstein believes policymakers could ultimately favor currency debasement over prolonged fiscal stress.

That environment could strengthen demand for scarce assets that cannot easily be created or diluted, including Bitcoin.

The shift may already be appearing in markets. BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF and SPDR’s GLD gold ETF recently returned to the top 10 most-traded ETFs after semiconductor funds dominated trading during the summer.

Bitcoin Could Reach $300,000 in 2029

Bernstein’s base case assumes Bitcoin broadly maintains its historical four-year cycle.

Under that scenario, BTC could reach approximately $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027 and around $300,000 at the 2029 cycle peak.

A more aggressive scenario sees institutional capital moving into Bitcoin faster as concerns around currency debasement increase. That could push Bitcoin toward $200,000 by mid-2027 and potentially $500,000 in 2029.

Bernstein also maintained its longer-term target of roughly $1 million per Bitcoin by the end of 2033.

Institutional Demand Strengthens the Case

Around 59% of Bitcoin’s supply has not moved during the past 12 months, according to Bernstein, while easier access through spot ETFs and corporate treasury strategies has expanded the cryptocurrency’s investor base.

Bitcoin has also gained roughly 28% over the past 10 days following an approximately 50% decline from its October 2025 record high.

Bernstein believes growing institutional participation and a more supportive regulatory environment could make future Bitcoin downturns less severe than the 75% to 90% declines experienced during earlier cycles.

The firm also maintained its Outperform rating on Strategy but lowered its price target from $450 to $350, citing increased equity dilution and its updated Bitcoin cycle outlook.

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