BetMGM Slashes 2026 Forecast Again Amid Prediction Market Rivalry

Key Takeaways

• BetMGM has reduced its 2026 annual forecast for the second time, targeting the bottom of its $2.9B–$3.1B revenue projection
• Second quarter net revenue reached $711 million, marking a 3% year-over-year increase with iGaming up 8%
• The company’s $500 million adjusted EBITDA goal has been postponed beyond its original 2027 timeframe
• Growing rivalry from prediction market operators such as Kalshi is driving up customer acquisition expenses
• Entain (ENT) shares declined 1.61% after the update

BetMGM has revised its annual projections downward for the second consecutive time in 2026, identifying intensifying rivalry from prediction market operators as a primary challenge.

Management now anticipates full-year net revenue and adjusted EBITDA will settle at the bottom of previously established guidance corridors — between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion for revenue, and $300 million to $350 million for EBITDA.

Second quarter net revenue totaled $711 million, representing a 3% year-over-year uptick. The iGaming segment drove performance with 8% expansion, whereas online sports betting revenue remained unchanged. The quarter’s adjusted EBITDA stood at $74 million.

Through the first six months of 2026, net revenue increased 4% to $1.4 billion. Adjusted EBITDA registered at $99 million, accompanied by positive cash flow generation.

However, these figures proved insufficient to prevent leadership from reducing forward-looking expectations.

Profitability Milestone Deferred

BetMGM had originally set a goal of reaching $500 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2027. That benchmark has now been pushed beyond the stated deadline, with management pointing to regulatory hurdles and heightened market competition.

Operators such as Kalshi have been expanding their presence across U.S. markets, while FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics have all introduced competing prediction market offerings. This surge in competition has elevated customer acquisition spending industry-wide.

BetMGM maintains a 13% gross gaming revenue share in operational jurisdictions, securing a top-three market position currently. Management emphasizes its concentration on iGaming capabilities, integrated omnichannel operations in Nevada, and targeting premium customer segments.

The joint venture maintains equal ownership between Entain and MGM Resorts. Entain (ENT) shares dropped 1.61% following the disclosure.

Entain Faces Headwinds

Entain’s technical indicators compound concerns. TipRanks’ AI analysis categorizes ENT as a “Strong Sell” based on technical metrics, featuring a bearish MACD signal and trading beneath critical long-term moving averages.

The stock does offer approximately a 3.6% dividend yield, and its latest analyst assessment remains a Buy rating with a £1,000 price objective. Nevertheless, with negative price-to-earnings metrics and irregular profitability patterns, the investment thesis remains uncertain.

MGM Resorts (MGM) shares advanced 1.67% during the session, though this movement seemed disconnected from the BetMGM announcement.

MGM Resorts International, MGM

BetMGM’s current valuation through Entain’s publicly traded entity stands at £3.54 billion.

The company’s second quarter performance and revised annual guidance represent further evidence that emerging prediction market platforms are compelling traditional sportsbook operators to recalibrate their expansion trajectories.

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