Bitcoin decouples from equities as correlation hits two-year low

For years, Bitcoin traded like a leveraged tech stock. When the Nasdaq sneezed, Bitcoin caught pneumonia. That relationship appears to be fracturing in a meaningful way.

The correlation between Bitcoin and US equities has dropped to its lowest point since the November 2022 FTX collapse, according to Santiment data. The 30-day rolling correlation dipped to -0.299 in December 2025 and settled around 0.18 in January 2026.

Diverging paths tell the story

The numbers paint a striking picture of two asset classes going their separate ways. From late August 2025 to early 2026, Bitcoin’s price fell roughly 43%. Over a similar stretch, the S&P 500 gained about 7%. Gold, meanwhile, surged 51%.

After reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a pullback exceeding 50% by mid-2026.

Three-month rolling correlations have also drifted near zero around mid-2026, reinforcing that this isn’t just a short-term statistical blip.

What’s driving the split

Analysts point to post-ETF deleveraging as a primary catalyst. After the initial wave of spot Bitcoin ETF enthusiasm, the derivatives market cooled significantly. Reduced leverage means Bitcoin’s price movements are less amplified by the same macro triggers that whip equity markets around.

BlackRock, which manages the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, has cited a 10-year correlation figure of just 0.18 between Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

Historical context matters

Long-term average correlations between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 typically settle in the 0.25 to 0.32 range. During acute financial crises, those numbers spike as everything sells off together. The current sub-0.20 readings represent the other end of that spectrum.

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