4 hours ago
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On the failure of the US/Iran peace talks over the weekend and the consequent rise in tensions, Bitcoin has been rejected from the $74K horizontal level and the bear market trendline. Is the $BTC price about to pull back further, or is this just a pause before another attempt to break out?
$BTC price falls $3,000
Source: TradingView
As can be seen by the 4-hour chart, the $BTC price finally got up to retest the bear market trendline, falling just short of the strong $74,000 horizontal resistance. Since then, and perhaps also reacting to the huge and growing uncertainty in the Middle East, the price has fallen almost $3,000 to end up below the $71,400 support, which has become resistance in this time frame.
Short term momentum indicators are quickly resetting on Monday morning, and now it remains to be seen whether the price will dip further to retest the bottom of the bear flag and the major $69K support level, or whether the price will rise again to retest the bear market trendline.
It’s notable that space is fast becoming compressed as the bear market trendline comes down to meet the bottom of the bear flag. One of these trendlines will have to give by next week at the latest.
SMAs about to tell a new story
Source: TradingView
Could the simple moving averages (SMAs) be about to tell a new story? The 200 and the 100 SMAs still look fairly set in their downward trajectories, and the latter can be another resistance if the $BTC price breaks through the downtrend, but it’s the 50-day SMA where one would expect to see the first signs of a different direction, and this is certainly happening as this SMA begins to curve back around.
It’s early days yet, and if the $BTC price falls from here, the upward curve on the 50-day SMA could quickly turn back to the downside.
At the foot of the chart, the Stochastic RSI in this daily time frame has begun to roll over from the top. This could actually be a good thing, as most of the short-term Stochastic RSI indicators have reached, or are reaching their bottoms. If the daily can also reset, this will give the bulls a clean bill of health ready for the next potential breakout.
0.786 Fibonacci in weekly time frame provides bottom support
Source: TradingView
In the weekly time frame, and applying the Fibonacci levels to the chart, it can be seen that by taking them from the bottom candle wick of the 8-month bull flag in 2024 and up to the all-time high, the lowest of the Fibonacci levels, the 0.786, lines up perfectly with the bottoms of the candles in the current bear flag, and also with the candle tops for the 2021 bull market high. Just a coincidence?
The weekly Stochastic RSI indicators continue to head higher. This is a high time frame signal, so certainly not something to disregard. That said, the indicator lines are about to cross up through the 50.00 level. Half way through their trajectory to the top and there is still such a long way to go for the price. The bulls need to get a move on.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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