Bitcoin Hits $73,000 Amid Ceasefire Rally, But Coinbase Chief Gives Caution

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Coinbase Global Head of Investment Research David Duong said the US-Iran ceasefire provided markets with a relief valve, not a full reset, as Bitcoin price tops $73,000.

The two-week truce sent oil back into the low $90s and triggered a broad risk rally. However, Duong argued that underlying constraints from the war have not disappeared.

Why the Ceasefire Rally May Not Last

BTC was trading for $73,085 as of this writing, up by over 3% in the last 24 hours amid risk-on sentiment following the temporary US-Iran ceasefire.

Yet core disputes between the US and Iran remain unresolved. Shipping firms still want security assurances. The Strait of Hormuz may reopen only partially at first.

NEW: Just one oil tanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours, two days into Trump's ceasefire whose entire premise was Iran reopening the strait.

Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of UAE state oil company ADNOC, said today the strait "is not open" and that 180 oil tankers… pic.twitter.com/MPZaAVylv0

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) April 10, 2026

Meanwhile, the CPI report released Friday showed gasoline prices rose 21.2% in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed this was the largest monthly increase since it began tracking the data in 1967.

Headline CPI climbed to 3.3% year over year, up from 2.4% in February.

US March CPI shows inflation heating up, with headline CPI rising 3.3% YoY (from 2.4%) and 0.9% MoM.

Core CPI came in softer at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, both below expectations.

Energy drove the move higher, with prices up 10.9% and gasoline surging 21.2%.

Markets reacted fast:… pic.twitter.com/vDLb6QA99A

— BeInCrypto (@beincrypto) April 10, 2026

Labor Data Adds Pressure on the Fed

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, nearly triple the 65,000 consensus. On the surface, that supports the Federal Reserve keeping rates elevated.

However, Duong noted labor force participation stayed low at 61.9%. Wage growth slowed to 3.5% year over year. Prior payroll prints have also been consistently revised downward.

The Fed’s double bind. On Tuesday night, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still conditional on a workable ceasefire framework and peace talks expected to begin on Friday. Markets responded immediately: oil plunged from… pic.twitter.com/Nkn7z2Wh6q

— David Duong🛡️ (@DavidDuong) April 10, 2026

This leaves the Fed in an uncomfortable middle ground, according to Duong. Growth is softer than headline numbers suggest, but not weak enough to justify imminent rate cuts while war-driven inflation risks persist.

Duong identified $84 as the key oil level to watch. A sustained break below that threshold would signal fading inflation pressure and raise the odds of a quicker resolution.

If oil reclaims and holds above $100, markets will likely begin pricing a longer conflict and renewed pressure on risk assets, including BTC.

Friday’s peace talks between the U.S. and Iran could determine whether this relief rally extends or reverses.

.@VP departs for Islamabad, Pakistan: "As @POTUS said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we're certainly willing to extend the open hand. If they're going to try to play us, then they're going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive." pic.twitter.com/9nNDGsMmId

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 10, 2026

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