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The Bitcoin price has broken out and put on more than 10% since the bottom at the beginning of July. Can Bitcoin hold on to these gains or will the bears pull the price back down to the lows?
Breakout from falling wedge
Source: TradingView
The 4-hour time frame for the $BTC price shows the recent breakout from another falling wedge. It appears that the price has confirmed the breakout and is trying to go higher from here. Another factor in the breakout is the fact that the price also pushed up through the 200 SMA and is using this moving average as support.
One very important thing to bear in mind though is that there has not been much in the way of volume to support the breakout. In fact, volume has been decreasing while price action has been going higher. This is certainly something to be keeping an eye on.
Finally, the 8-hour, 12-hour, and 1-day time frame Stochastic RSI indicators are just about to turn down. A return to at least retest the bull market trendline could be the next move.
Nice rally but no higher high
Source: TradingView
The daily time frame illustrates that the series of green bars may be about to come to an end on Monday. There is still most of the day to go, but it would make sense for a correction here, even if it is not a particularly deep one, but that obviously remains to be seen.
Probably the main thing to consider here, is although this last rally was a decent one, the $BTC price did not make a higher high. If the bulls are to start changing the trend back to the upside, a higher high is the minimum that would be expected. Now, unless the bulls step back in, the price could fall back below the bull market trendline and who knows, a lower low, which continues to grind out a bottom, could be the move to come.
Positives in weekly time frame, but regaining $66K is key
Source: TradingView
So what does the high time frame chart tell us? There are certainly positives here. The $BTC price continues to hold at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, and is also above the 200-week SMA and the bull market trendline, with horizontal support at $63K and $62K just below.
The Stochastic RSI indicator lines are posturing to cross back up, and already being at the 20.00 level, if the bulls do take the upper hand, they could signal strong upside price momentum.
The thing is, the $BTC price has still not regained the critical $66K resistance level. Until it does so, the best case scenario is to go sideways and possibly downwards. As can be seen in the chart, the bull market trendline and 200-week SMA are pushing the price into a narrow space between them and the $66K resistance. There are several weeks to go before the price would have to break up or down - a continuance of the bear market or the start of a new bull market could depend on the outcome.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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