Bitcoin shows near-zero correlation with rising bond yields, diverging sharply from gold

For years, the conventional wisdom went something like this: rising bond yields are bad for assets that don’t generate income, and Bitcoin, which pays exactly zero percent interest, should get hammered when Treasuries sell off. The data, as of early September 2026, tells a different story.

Bitcoin’s 90-day rolling correlation with changes in the 10-year US Treasury yield sits at -0.17. That’s close enough to zero that statisticians would call it noise. Gold, the other famous non-yielding store of value, clocks in at -0.41 over the same window. One of these assets is feeling the pressure from higher rates. The other is Bitcoin.

The macro backdrop makes this even stranger

This isn’t happening during a calm period for bond markets. The 30-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5%, reaching levels between 5.25% and 5.33%, multi-year highs that have sent tremors through virtually every corner of traditional finance.

US gross federal debt blew past $40 trillion in August 2026, hitting approximately $40.13 trillion by mid-month. Persistent inflation concerns haven’t helped either, keeping the Fed in an uncomfortable position and bond vigilantes firmly in control of the long end of the curve.

Throughout 2026, Bitcoin has traded in a range between roughly $63,000 and $86,000. That’s not moonshot territory, but it’s remarkably resilient for an asset that critics insist should crumble when real yields climb.

Bitcoin and gold are converging, but for different reasons

While Bitcoin is decoupling from Treasury yields, it’s actually moving more closely with gold. The 90-day Bitcoin-gold correlation reached 0.59 by early September 2026, the highest reading since 2020.

Earlier in 2026, the picture looked different. In March, Bitcoin’s correlation with 10-year yields actually peaked at a positive 0.32, meaning both were rising together. The subsequent collapse of that correlation toward near-zero suggests Bitcoin has shed its beta to the rates market rather than maintaining a stable relationship in either direction.

What this means for portfolio construction

For institutional allocators who spent the past few years building models around the assumption that Bitcoin behaves like a leveraged version of gold, these numbers require a rethink. A -0.17 correlation to yields versus gold’s -0.41 means the two assets are no longer interchangeable hedges, if they ever were.

Bitcoin’s relative indifference to yield movements could make it increasingly attractive as a diversifier in portfolios that already hold gold. If bonds sell off further and gold weakens in response, Bitcoin’s near-zero beta to that move provides genuine diversification benefit.

The caveat is that correlations are unstable, especially in crypto. The March 2026 reading of 0.32 and the September reading of -0.17 are separated by barely six months.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.