Bitcoin Trading Activity Hits Multi-Year Low – Here Is Why Markets Are Waiting for the Fed

• Bitcoin remained stuck near $63,000 as July trading activity fell to its weakest level since November 2023, according to K33 Research.
• Spot and derivatives markets both saw muted volumes, reflecting cautious investor sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
• K33 also highlighted the upcoming closure of BitMEX, marking the end of one of crypto’s most influential derivatives exchanges.

Bitcoin continued to trade within a narrow range during July as market activity slowed significantly, with both spot and derivatives volumes falling to multi-year lows.

According to a new report from K33 Research, average daily Bitcoin spot trading volume is on pace to record its weakest monthly level since November 2023, underscoring the cautious mood among investors.

Despite brief moves above $64,000, Bitcoin spent most of the week hovering near $63,300 as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.

Spot and Derivatives Markets Remain Quiet

K33 reported that average daily spot trading volume across the exchanges it tracks reached approximately $2.2 billion during July, while the seven-day average slipped to around $2.1 billion.

Activity across Bitcoin derivatives markets also remained subdued.

Open interest on the CME stayed near levels last seen in 2023, while perpetual futures open interest remained relatively stable, indicating that traders are largely avoiding aggressive new positions until clearer market catalysts emerge.

Funding rates also stayed within a relatively neutral range, suggesting balanced positioning between bullish and bearish traders.

BitMEX Era Comes to an End

The report also highlighted the planned shutdown of BitMEX, one of the cryptocurrency industry’s earliest and most influential derivatives exchanges.

BitMEX pioneered the popular perpetual futures market and once controlled roughly 40% of offshore Bitcoin derivatives open interest in early 2020.

However, following regulatory actions and increasing competition, its market share steadily declined to approximately 0.6% during the first half of 2026.

K33 noted that BitMEX joins other exchanges, including BitMart and AscendEX, that have announced closures amid weaker trading activity and declining industry revenues.

Investors Focus on the Federal Reserve

With trading volumes remaining light, investors are now looking toward the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy announcement as the next potential catalyst for the crypto market.

According to K33, market participants currently assign higher odds to the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged, although some probability remains for another rate increase.

The outcome—and, more importantly, the central bank’s guidance on inflation and future monetary policy—could determine whether Bitcoin breaks out of its current consolidation range or continues trading sideways.

Low Volatility Often Precedes Larger Moves

Periods of unusually low trading volume and compressed price action have historically been followed by stronger market moves once a major catalyst emerges.

Whether that catalyst comes from monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, or renewed institutional demand remains uncertain.

For now, K33 says Bitcoin continues to trade in a holding pattern, with investors waiting for fresh signals before committing to larger directional positions.

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