Bridgewater warns AI job displacement could hit 18% of US jobs in five years

Greg Jensen has a habit of watching for the moment right before everything changes. In a new interview, the co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates said the current AI boom feels eerily similar to February 2020 — the weeks just before COVID-19 upended the global economy. He’s not predicting a pandemic. He’s warning that the world may be underestimating how fast AI job displacement and economic disruption could arrive, even as trillions of dollars keep flowing into the technology.

Key takeaways

• Greg Jensen, co-CIO of Bridgewater and leader of its AI strategy and lab, was among the earliest backers of both OpenAI and Anthropic.
• Bridgewater’s internal analysis forecasts that up to 18% of US jobs could be displaced by AI within five years, affecting a labor force of roughly 160 million people.
• AI-related capital expenditure now accounts for roughly one-third of recent US economic growth, driven by data centers, chip fabrication, and energy infrastructure.
• Jensen has proposed a “token tax” on AI computational resources to cushion the economic fallout from job losses.
• He argues AI developers and the corporations deploying their systems should face liability — including criminal liability — when AI causes harm.

Bridgewater’s Forecast on AI Job Displacement

Bridgewater’s own modeling points to a sharp and fast-approaching labor shock: as much as 18% of jobs in the United States could disappear within five years because of AI. That figure comes not from a skeptic on the sidelines, but from a firm that has staked real capital on the technology’s continued growth.

Greg Jensen’s Role and Influence

Jensen is the managing chief investment officer at Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, where he leads the firm’s AI strategy and its internal AI lab. He was also one of the earliest institutional backers of both OpenAI and Anthropic, giving him a front-row seat to how quickly model capabilities have advanced. That dual role — investor in AI’s growth and analyst of its risks — is part of what makes his warnings notable. He isn’t arguing from outside the industry; he’s arguing from inside the boom.

Scope of US Labor Force Impact

To understand what an 18% displacement rate actually means, scale matters. The US labor force totals roughly 160 million people. Even a fraction of that percentage translates into tens of millions of workers whose roles could be automated, restructured, or eliminated within half a decade. That’s the kind of shift that historically takes generations, compressed into a much shorter window.

Economic Impact of AI Investments in the US

AI isn’t just changing how companies operate — it’s already propping up a meaningful share of American economic growth. Jensen has pointed out that AI-related capital expenditure now accounts for roughly one-third of recent US economic growth, a figure that underscores how dependent broader output has become on a single technological wave.

Contribution of AI to Economic Growth

That one-third share is significant because it means the health of the wider economy is now partly tethered to continued AI investment. If that spending slows or stalls, the ripple effects wouldn’t stay confined to tech companies — they’d show up in broader growth figures. This is one reason Jensen frames the current period as economically consequential well beyond Silicon Valley.

Infrastructure Demands Driving AI Expansion

Much of that capital expenditure is going toward physical build-out: data centers, chip fabrication capacity, and the energy systems needed to power both. This demand for infrastructure is accelerating at the same time the broader economy is becoming more reliant on AI-driven productivity gains — a combination Jensen sees as feeding on itself, for better or worse.

Risks and Regulatory Proposals from Bridgewater’s Greg Jensen

Jensen’s core argument is that safeguards need to arrive before serious harm occurs, not after. He has described the current phase of AI investment as “more dangerous” than earlier stages of the boom, pointing to the scale of capital now committed and the speed at which model capabilities are advancing.

A “More Dangerous” AI Investment Phase

Comparing this moment to February 2020 isn’t a throwaway line. Jensen’s point is that in the run-up to a major disruption, the warning signs are often visible but widely dismissed until it’s too late to act calmly. Applied to AI, that means the economic dependence on AI capital expenditure, combined with rapidly advancing — and sometimes unpredictable — model behavior, creates conditions where a shock could hit before institutions are prepared to respond.

Proposal of a Computational “Token Tax”

To get ahead of that risk, Jensen authored an op-ed in the New York Times proposing a “token tax” — a levy on the computational resources that power AI systems. The idea would tax the tokens processed by large language models and similar architectures, generating funds that could help offset the economic disruption caused by AI-driven job losses. It’s a mechanism aimed less at slowing AI development and more at building a financial cushion for the workers displaced by it.

Accountability through AI Developer and Corporate Liability

Jensen also wants accountability built directly into the system. He argues that AI developers and the corporations deploying their models should face liability when AI causes harm — including criminal liability for AI-induced crimes. That stance puts him at odds with much of the tech industry, which has generally pushed for a lighter regulatory touch and safe harbor protections rather than direct exposure to legal consequences.

That gap between Jensen’s proposals and the industry’s preferred approach matters for how any future AI regulation gets shaped. If liability rules and a token tax gained traction, they would represent a meaningful departure from the largely hands-off regulatory environment AI companies have operated in so far — and could reshape how firms weigh the costs of deploying systems at scale before all the safety questions are settled.

FAQ

Who is Greg Jensen and what is his role regarding AI?

Greg Jensen is co-CIO of Bridgewater and leads its AI strategy and lab.

How many US jobs does Bridgewater anticipate could be displaced by AI in the near future?

Bridgewater forecasts that up to 18% of US jobs could be displaced by AI within five years.

What economic effects has AI investment had in the US recently?

AI-related capital expenditures account for roughly one-third of recent US economic growth, driven by infrastructure needs like data centers and chip fabrication.

What regulatory measures does Greg Jensen propose to mitigate AI risks?

Jensen proposes a “token tax” on AI computational resources to offset economic disruption and suggests AI developers and corporations should face liability, including criminal liability, for AI-caused harms.

Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.