Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz doubts Federal Reserve will raise rates repeatedly

Harvey Schwartz, the CEO of Carlyle Group, told Bloomberg Television that he does not expect the Federal Reserve to keep hiking interest rates. The comments put him at odds with a growing market consensus that the Fed will pursue a more aggressive tightening cycle to combat stubborn inflation.

Schwartz made the remarks during the Carlyle 2026 Global Investor Conference, where the firm also announced a partnership with MIT to explore artificial intelligence applications in investment strategies. For a man running roughly $447 billion in assets, his read on where rates are headed carries weight well beyond the conference room.

The case against repeated hikes

Schwartz pointed to what he described as resilient economic data, even as geopolitical tensions in Europe and Iran continue to cloud the outlook. His argument boils down to this: the economy is strong enough to handle current conditions, but not so overheated that it demands a sustained campaign of rate increases.

Inflation remains sticky, Schwartz acknowledged, but he framed that persistence as a byproduct of a robust labor market rather than a signal that the Fed needs to keep tightening the screws. In his view, the central bank will continue monitoring incoming data closely before making its next move, rather than committing to a predetermined path of hikes.

He also went out of his way to praise Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s management of external pressures, calling the effective handling of competing economic and political forces a testament to strong leadership. More pointedly, Schwartz emphasized that central bank independence remains critical to financial stability.

What Carlyle’s portfolio is telling him

Schwartz’s confidence isn’t purely theoretical. He cited resilience in Carlyle’s portfolio cash flows as evidence that the underlying economy remains on solid footing.

Schwartz has been running Carlyle since February 2023, following a long career at Goldman Sachs. His track record as a Goldman executive, where he served as co-president and co-chief operating officer, gave him a front-row seat to multiple rate cycles.

AI, MIT, and the bigger picture

The same day Schwartz shared his rate outlook, Carlyle announced a partnership with MIT aimed at studying how artificial intelligence can be applied to investment strategies. The pairing of a $447 billion asset manager with one of the world’s leading research universities signals that Carlyle sees AI as more than a buzzword.

For alternative asset managers, AI applications could range from deal sourcing and due diligence to portfolio monitoring and risk management. The MIT collaboration suggests Carlyle is looking to build institutional knowledge in the space rather than simply bolting off-the-shelf tools onto existing processes.

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