Clarity Act odds drop after bill amendments, Polymarket data shows

https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2025/07/us-house-passes-genius-and-clarity-acts-signaling-bipartisan-support-for-digital-assets

The odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 have decreased following recent amendments to the bill, according to Polymarket data. The changes have reportedly led to a decline in confidence among market participants, with the probability now ranging from the low-30% to low-40% range. This shift suggests that the revisions or new amendments may have introduced additional uncertainty regarding the bill’s passage within the current legislative term. The Clarity Act, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, had previously cleared the House in 2025 and is currently being reviewed by the Senate.

Key Takeaways

• The Clarity Act’s passage odds have decreased, reflecting skepticism about the bill’s enactment in 2026.
• Polymarket data shows the current probability of the Act becoming law is now in the low-30% to low-40% range.
• Recent amendments to the bill appear to be a key factor influencing market sentiment.

What to Watch

Market participants will be closely monitoring any further developments in the Senate’s review of the Clarity Act, as well as any public statements from key political figures such as President Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. A Senate Banking Committee vote or a public endorsement from influential lawmakers could indicate potential movement in the bill’s passage prospects. Conversely, delays or negative commentary from the White House or Senate could further dampen the market’s expectations for the Act’s enactment in 2026.

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