Crypto ETF filings are flooding the SEC. Here are the five most likely to get a green light

Donald Trump’s caller pro-crypto medication has fuelled a flurry of filings for crypto exchange-traded funds.

Which ones volition get a greenish airy from the Securities and Exchange Commission?

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas assigned 90% likelihood of support for a Litecoin ETF successful 2025.

In 2nd spot comes Dogecoin with 75%, followed by Solana with 70%, and XRP has a 65% likelihood.

Hoping to replicate Bitcoin’s wildly successful 2024 debut, money managers from Grayscale to Bitwise person flooded the SEC with applications for caller spot crypto funds.

The optimism stems from Trump’s arrival, which brought a fig of crypto ally nominations to cardinal argumentation positions, marking a displacement from the erstwhile administration.

These are the six imaginable caller crypto ETFs coming to market.

Litecoin

The highest likelihood onshore successful Litecoin’s favour.

That’s due to the fact that the SEC apt views the plus arsenic a commodity, which simplifies its regulatory path. The bureau acknowledged Grayscale’s Litecoin Trust filing successful precocious January, and a Canary Capital exertion connected February 6.

“Litecoin ETFs present person each the boxes checked,” said Balchunas earlier this year. “With a caller SEC sheriff successful town, this could beryllium the archetypal altcoin ETF to deed the market.”

The SEC has an October 2nd deadline for approval.

Dogecoin

Crypto’s astir beloved memecoin has the 2nd highest chances of an ETF with a 75% likelihood of approval.

Similar to Litecoin, analysts are attributing the precocious likelihood to its commodity-like status.

Grayscale and Bitwise await SEC acknowledgement by February 14, and the bureau has an October 18 deadline for approval.

Solana

Solana slides successful 3rd spot with 70% support odds.

A heavyweight lineup that includes applications from Bitwise, VanEck, and 21Shares signals beardown organization interest.

However, questions stay astir its regulatory classification. The SEC nether Gary Gensler antecedently categorised Solana arsenic a information successful ongoing lawsuits against large crypto exchanges.

“The lawsuits and worldly from the part of enforcement request to beryllium cleared earlier they tin o.k. a Solana ETF,” said Seyffart connected February 6.

The SEC has an October 10 deadline.

XRP

Ripple’s XRP takes 4th spot with 65% odds.

Even though 5 firms person applied for an XRP ETF — including Bitwise and WisdomTree — the plus has the tallest regulatory hurdle to overcome.

“Until that WHOLE messiness of litigation betwixt Ripple/XRP and the SEC is settled and/or finished oregon has immoderate benignant of expected outcome, you apt won’t spot an ETF,” said Seyffart.

He’s referring to an ongoing ineligible conflict betwixt the SEC and XRP’s genitor institution Ripple. In 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that the company’s organization income of XRP violated securities laws but its income to retail investors did not represent securities transactions.

JPMorgan sees much than $8 cardinal flowing into an XRP ETF.

The SEC has an October 17 deadline.

Polkadot

21Shares filed for a Polkadot ETF successful precocious January.

The money would commercialized connected the Cboe BZX exchange, and Coinbase would service arsenic its custodian.

Seyffart said that its filing was met with scepticism from marketplace watchers.

“This is up determination with the astir hatred I’ve ever seen an ETF filing get,” helium said, pointing retired that 21Shares already offers a Polkadot ETP successful Switzerland since 2021.

21Shares’ exertion has yet to beryllium acknowledged, and the SEC inactive hasn’t acceptable a deadline for its resolution.

HBAR

Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR rounds retired the database of imaginable caller crypto ETFs.

Canary Capital applied for it connected November 12, 2024.

However, for Bloomberg’s Balchunas, it doesn’t basal up to overmuch scrutiny.

“Once each 2 years oregon truthful determination is an ETF filing wherever I virtually person to usage Google to recognize what it tracks,” helium wrote successful mid-November. “This was 1 of those times. The post-Trump spaghetti cannon successful effect.”

The SEC inactive hasn’t acknowledged the filing, nor acceptable a day for resolution.

Pedro Solimano is simply a markets analogous based successful Buenos Aires. Got a tip? Email him astatine [email protected].