EU gas storage forecast to end season 76% full, risking price hikes heading into winter

Europe’s gas cupboard is looking worryingly bare. Storage facilities across the EU are projected to reach only about 76% capacity by the end of September 2026, with a slight improvement to roughly 77% by the end of October under scenarios where LNG supplies remain constrained.

That’s a problem, because the traditional target is 90% full by November 1. Missing it by 13 to 14 percentage points isn’t a rounding error. It’s the kind of gap that turns a cold snap into a price crisis.

How Europe ended up here

The story starts with an unusually punishing winter that drained reserves faster than expected. By early April 2026, EU storage facilities sat between just 28% and 31% full, the lowest levels since 2018.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have slowed LNG deliveries, with disruptions in shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, creating bottlenecks in the global LNG supply chain. The loss of Russian pipeline gas continues to limit the continent’s options. Add constrained Qatari LNG flows to the mix, and you get a market where simply finding enough gas to inject is a genuine challenge.

The numbers tell a stark story

Energy Aspects, the research firm, estimates that even with more aggressive injection rates, EU storage levels by the end of October will land somewhere between 75% and 78%. Their central estimate pegs the fill rate at about 78%, translating to roughly 85.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in storage.

Meeting the 90% target would require approximately 57 bcm of injections. Under current supply conditions, that volume simply isn’t materializing fast enough.

The ENTSOG Summer Supply Outlook for 2026 paints a similar picture, projecting that constrained LNG scenarios leave Europe well short of its storage goals heading into the heating season.

What this means for prices and policy

Analysts warn that higher TTF benchmark prices, Europe’s primary gas trading reference, will likely be necessary to incentivize both imports and injections. Should storage levels conform to the forecasted 75% to 78% range, any unexpected spike in winter demand could trigger sharp price increases.

Discussions among EU policymakers have emerged around potentially lowering the formal storage target from 90% to 80%. A mandatory 90% target in a supply-constrained environment forces buyers to compete aggressively for limited gas volumes, which itself drives prices higher. Lowering the target to 80% could ease some of that market pressure and reduce the premium European buyers pay in the global LNG market.

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