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Washington’s most connected insiders have spoken, and the verdict is bleak. Fewer than 10% of senior Capitol Hill staffers believe a third reconciliation bill will make it through the 119th Congress, according to Punchbowl News polling from early July 2026.
The Senate says no, the House says please
House Speaker Mike Johnson has been pushing hard for a third reconciliation bill centered on defense spending and fraud reduction, hoping to get something across the finish line before the August 2026 recess.
Senators Mitch McConnell and Susan Collins declared on June 9, 2026, that it is “safe to conclude there will not be another reconciliation bill.”
A separate canvass conducted by Punchbowl on June 1, 2026, found that a majority of K Street leaders had already reached the same conclusion. Reconciliation bills matter because they can pass the Senate with a simple majority, bypassing the 60-vote filibuster threshold.
What this means for crypto legislation
Reconciliation had been floated as a possible home for crypto-related measures, including provisions similar to those found in the Digital Asset PARITY Act and the Clarity Act. With reconciliation off the table, those provisions lose their most viable legislative vehicle.
Several bipartisan initiatives on crypto tax measures are reportedly being pursued outside of the reconciliation process. Standalone crypto bills face the full gauntlet of congressional procedure, including the filibuster, committee markups, and institutional inertia.
A wait-and-see market
Cryptocurrency prices have not shown significant reactions to the reconciliation bill’s dimming prospects. For institutional investors who have been waiting for regulatory clarity before increasing their crypto exposure, the absence of a defined tax framework creates compliance risk that large allocators cannot ignore.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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