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Fitch Ratings confirmed on August 22, 2025 that the United States keeps its Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘AA+’, paired with a Stable Outlook.
Fitch’s affirmation does not mean the US fiscal picture is improving. The agency projects the US debt-to-GDP ratio will climb from 114.5% at the end of 2024 to 127% by the close of 2027.
On the growth side, Fitch revised its real GDP forecast for 2026 down to approximately 1.9%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points from its March 2025 estimate. The 2027 outlook sits in a similar range, around 2%.
The agency pointed to several headwinds compressing that forecast: elevated inflation weighing on consumer spending, energy price volatility tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the knock-on effects of tariff policy rippling through supply chains and import costs.
Fitch’s reasoning rests on four pillars that it cited explicitly: the sheer size of the US economy, high per-capita income levels, an active and flexible business environment, and the dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency.
The US was stripped of its AAA rating by Fitch in August 2023, a move that rattled markets briefly before investors largely shrugged and kept buying Treasuries. Moody’s downgraded the US from its own triple-A rating in May 2025, meaning all three of the major rating agencies now place the US one notch below the top tier. Fitch’s stable outlook signals it does not see an imminent further downgrade on the horizon.
For equity markets, the 1.9% growth forecast represents a moderate expansion. Sectors most exposed to consumer discretionary spending face the steepest headwinds, given that inflation is still compressing real purchasing power for a broad swath of households.
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