3 hours ago
12
Fourteen oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz today. The odds of traffic normalization by April 30 sit at 71.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 sub-market dropped 10 points in the past 24 hours despite today’s transit. The May 31 market holds steady at 92% YES, meaning traders expect a resolution by end of May even if April looks less certain.
Liquidity in the April market is thin: only $354 is needed to shift the price by 5 points. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 4-point drop, which shows how easily small trades can swing this contract.
Why it matters
The tanker passage suggests a tentative easing of the blockade, but traders are discounting the signal because the source of this report is less authoritative. Buying YES at 71.5¢ offers a potential 1.98x return if normalization happens by April 30.
What to watch
Official statements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry or the US Department of Defense. A shift in rhetoric or concrete actions from either side would move these contracts fast, especially given the thin liquidity.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) ·