Galaxy Research cuts Clarity Act 2026 odds amid Senate delays

Galaxy Research has significantly reduced its expectations for the Clarity Act to become law in 2026, lowering the odds from 50% to 30%. The research firm cited the increasingly congested Senate calendar as a primary obstacle. The Clarity Act, a digital asset market-structure bill, passed the House in July 2025 and advanced in the Senate Banking Committee this year but has yet to be scheduled for a final vote. This adjustment by Galaxy Research appears consistent with broader market sentiment, which has also seen a reduction in the likelihood of the bill’s passage this year.

Key Takeaways

• Galaxy Research’s revised forecast suggests a decreased likelihood of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026.
• The Senate’s crowded calendar is highlighted as a significant impediment to the bill’s progress.
• Market pricing aligns with this outlook, indicating reduced confidence in the Clarity Act’s enactment this year.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor the Senate’s legislative schedule for any developments regarding the Clarity Act’s progression to a floor vote. Key political figures, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and President Donald Trump, could play crucial roles in influencing the bill’s trajectory. Any announcements regarding scheduling or endorsements from these figures may impact market perceptions and pricing for the Clarity Act’s passage in 2026.

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