Galaxy Research cuts CLARITY Act passing odds to 50% amid Senate calendar constraints

Five weeks ago, Galaxy Research pegged the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 75%. Now that number sits at 50%, a dramatic slide that reflects a growing pile of procedural obstacles standing between the crypto industry’s most significant market structure bill and the finish line.

The downgrade, Galaxy’s second in June alone, reflects no merged bill text, no scheduled Senate floor vote, and no firm commitments from Senate leadership.

A bill that won the House and stalled in the Senate

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 passed the House on July 17, 2025, with a bipartisan vote of 294-134. The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill on May 14, 2026, with a 15-9 vote. It then landed on the Senate legislative calendar around June 1.

Galaxy’s probability estimates tell the story of a slow-motion confidence collapse. Pre-May 14, the firm estimated a 55% chance of passage. After the committee vote, optimism surged to 75% in late May. By June 9, that had already slipped to 60%. Now it’s 50%.

Why the Senate calendar is a silent killer

Before the bill can reach the floor, it needs reconciliation between the Senate Banking Committee version and the Agriculture Committee version. That hasn’t happened yet. Even after reconciliation, the bill faces the Senate’s filibuster threshold of 60 votes.

Galaxy’s assessment aligns closely with what prediction markets are showing. Polymarket odds for the bill sat around 47% as of late June, a hair below Galaxy’s 50% estimate.

What this means for crypto investors

The CLARITY Act would establish which digital assets fall under SEC jurisdiction versus CFTC oversight, a distinction that has been the source of endless enforcement actions, legal battles, and general confusion. A failure to pass means the status quo continues: regulation by enforcement, where agencies define the rules retroactively through lawsuits rather than proactively through legislation.

No specific crypto tokens are directly tied to the bill’s passage, so the overall market reaction remains muted. Investors should be tracking three specific signals from Washington: whether a merged bill text emerges, whether Senate leadership schedules a floor vote, and whether there are public whip counts suggesting 60 votes are achievable.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.