Gas files for 44.9 GW of new plants as renewables face reliability challenges

Natural gas developers have proposed 44.9 gigawatts of new power plants in the US, a buildout so large it dwarfs the 12.7 GW of older plants expected to retire by late 2028. The driving force behind this fossil fuel renaissance isn’t seasonal heating demand or industrial expansion. It’s artificial intelligence.

According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, of the 44.9 GW filed, 22.7 GW is deemed high-probability additions, meaning these aren’t just speculative permits gathering dust.

AI’s insatiable appetite for power

Global Energy Monitor data shows nearly 100 GW of behind-the-meter natural gas projects specifically for data centers are now in the US development pipeline as of early 2026. For context, that figure was just 4 GW in early 2024. A 25x increase in roughly two years.

Behind-the-meter means these aren’t plants feeding into the general grid. They’re dedicated power sources built specifically to serve individual facilities.

The biggest names in AI are leading the charge. OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and xAI are all pursuing dedicated gas-fired generation to meet load demands that, in some cases, rival the electricity consumption of entire states. AI-related data center demand is projected to surge from 4 GW in 2024 to 123 GW by 2035.

Renewables won the generation battle but lost the reliability war

Renewable energy hit a milestone in March 2026, accounting for 35% of US electricity generation and narrowly surpassing natural gas at 34.4%. But percentage of total generation and ability to serve as reliable baseload power are two very different metrics.

Natural gas development is also filling gaps left by retiring coal plants, which are exiting the fleet faster than renewables and battery storage can replace them.

The emissions elephant in the room

Based on permit filings, the projects linked to OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and xAI could emit over 129 million tons of greenhouse gases annually. That’s a staggering figure from companies that have made public commitments to sustainability and carbon neutrality.

For investors eyeing the energy sector, the proposed gas capacity buildout creates a clear near-term opportunity in natural gas firms and related infrastructure companies. The demand signal from the tech industry is backed by filed permits, corporate capital expenditure plans, and a load growth curve that shows no signs of flattening before 2035.

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