Gas turbine shortage becomes AI’s biggest constraint as backlogs stretch to 2031

The gas turbines needed to power the massive data centers behind every chatbot query and image generation prompt are stuck in a manufacturing queue that now stretches into the next decade.

US data center power demand is projected to more than double, climbing from 31 GW in 2025 to roughly 66 GW by 2027, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. The global turbine manufacturing industry can produce somewhere between 60 and 70 GW per year. Total orders already exceed 110 GW.

A backlog measured in years, not months

GE Vernova, one of the world’s dominant turbine makers, reported a gas power equipment backlog of 116 GW as of Q2 2026. That’s up from 100 GW just one quarter earlier. The company is now offering delivery slots as far out as 2031.

Siemens Energy paints a similar picture. The company sold 100 gas turbines in 2024 and nearly doubled that to 194 in 2025. Around 60% of its recent turbine orders are connected to data center projects.

Turbine prices reflect the squeeze. According to Wood Mackenzie, costs have surged by more than 195% since 2019. Manufacturers have started charging reservation fees just to hold a place in line.

Capital costs for combined-cycle power plants have roughly doubled in recent years as a direct consequence of the supply crunch.

The grid can’t keep up either

Even if turbines materialized overnight, the electrical grid itself has its own capacity problem. Hyperscalers and data center developers have tried to sidestep this by building behind-the-meter generation, essentially private power plants that feed directly into a facility without touching the broader grid. Those private setups still need the same gas turbines everyone else is fighting over.

PJM Interconnection, the regional transmission organization that manages the grid across 13 eastern US states, saw its July 2026 capacity auction fall 6,831 MW short of its reliability target. That was the third consecutive year the auction missed the mark.

Goldman Sachs forecasts US data center capacity additions of 13.6 GW in 2026 and 36.3 GW in 2027.

Geopolitics and competition for supply

US tech companies aren’t the only ones placing orders. The Middle East has become a significant source of turbine demand, as Gulf states invest heavily in both AI infrastructure and broader power generation, adding another layer of competition for a finite manufacturing pipeline.

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