Gold Plunges Over 20% From Peak — Why Experts Still Project $10,000 Per Ounce

Key Highlights

• Gold futures declined 0.2% to settle at $4,400.50 per ounce Tuesday amid U.S. dollar strength.
• The precious metal has tumbled approximately 21% from its late-January record of $5,594.82, entering bear market territory.
• Market sentiment shifted after reports emerged that Saudi Arabia granted U.S. military access to King Fahd air base.
• Market strategists from Global X ETFs and Standard Chartered continue projecting gold will climb to $5,375–$6,000 before year-end.
• Yardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni continues to forecast the metal reaching $10,000 per ounce by decade’s end.

The precious metal has officially entered bear market territory, declining more than 20% from its peak reached in January. However, numerous market strategists believe this correction presents a temporary setback.

Spot gold experienced a decline of up to 2% during Tuesday’s session before recovering slightly, finishing at $4,335.97 per ounce. Gold futures contracts dropped approximately 2% to $4,317.80. The precious metal has now retreated roughly 21% from its record high of $5,594.82 achieved in late January.

Micro Gold Futures,Apr-2026 (MGC=F)

Continuous gold futures contracts also experienced a 0.2% decline, settling at $4,400.50 per ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.4%, creating additional headwinds for the yellow metal. Since gold trades in dollar denominations, a strengthening U.S. currency increases purchasing costs for international buyers.

Gold has surrendered 17% of its value throughout March alone, based on FactSet analytics. The dollar index has appreciated roughly 3% since tensions with Iran escalated on February 28.

Tuesday’s price pressure intensified following a Wall Street Journal article revealing Saudi Arabia’s agreement to provide U.S. military forces access to King Fahd air base. This decision represented a notable departure from the kingdom’s previous stance that its installations would remain off-limits during the Iran conflict.

Neil Welsh, metals division head at Britannia Global Markets, noted that markets continue demonstrating heightened sensitivity to geopolitical shifts. Without meaningful progress toward conflict resolution, he warned investors should anticipate persistent turbulence in precious metals markets.

The decline accelerated after President Donald Trump announced Monday a five-day suspension of planned military operations targeting Iran’s energy sector. This development helped diminish some geopolitical risk premium that had previously bolstered gold valuations.

Expert Conviction Remains Despite Correction

Notwithstanding the substantial pullback, numerous market professionals refuse to view this as a fundamental shift in gold‘s trajectory. They highlight central bank accumulation, ongoing geopolitical risks, and expectations of dollar weakness as compelling reasons for optimism.

Ed Yardeni, who heads Yardeni Research, adjusted his year-end projection downward to $5,000 per ounce from $6,000. However, he confirmed to CNBC his conviction in a long-term target of $10,000 per ounce by 2030.

Justin Lin, who serves as investment strategist at Global X ETFs, established his year-end projection at $6,000, characterizing the current decline as “a compelling entry point for investors.” He attributed the selloff to transient factors including elevated interest rates and portfolio adjustments.

Lin emphasized his optimistic perspective extends beyond Iran-related developments. He highlighted sustained central bank purchasing activity and capital flows from Asian gold exchange-traded fund participants as primary catalysts.

Standard Chartered maintains a constructive stance on the precious metal. Senior Investment Strategist Rajat Bhattacharya indicated the institution anticipates gold recovering toward $5,375 within the next three months, once profit-taking subsides. He identified technical price support near the $4,100 threshold.

Central Bank Demand Expected to Provide Foundation

Emerging economy central banks have maintained consistent gold acquisition programs while reducing dollar reserve concentrations. Lin suggested there exists a “high likelihood” that central bank purchases accelerate following the recent price correction.

Bhattacharya emphasized that renewed U.S. dollar weakness would provide renewed momentum for gold valuations. Market participants anticipate Federal Reserve interest rate reductions eventually, which could undermine dollar strength.

Standard Chartered identifies crucial technical support for gold positioned around the $4,100 price level.

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