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A Goldman Sachs flow expert is flagging something interesting happening beneath the surface of tech markets: the sequencing of de-risking ahead of Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report looks notable, and the positioning data backs that up.
US large-cap mutual funds are currently underweight Nvidia by roughly 100 basis points, making it the single largest underweight position among major AI-related stocks tracked by the firm.
The underweight club has plenty of members
Nvidia isn’t alone in drawing skepticism from fund managers. AMD sits underweight by about 60 basis points, Alphabet by 70 basis points, and Microsoft by 50 basis points.
This de-risking trend accelerated during June and July 2026, with market participants reducing both gross and net exposures across tech and AI names.
The timing matters because Nvidia’s Q2 FY2027 earnings are approaching, and Goldman views the report as a potentially significant market catalyst. When you have this many large funds sitting underweight the most important AI stock on the planet, the reaction function to earnings becomes asymmetric.
Goldman’s own positioning is decidedly more bullish
Goldman Sachs’ semiconductor analyst maintains a Buy rating on Nvidia with a $285 price target, citing tight supply conditions and upside potential even after recent stock price gains.
Nvidia announced on August 10 a series of partnerships with Goldman Sachs, Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, and KKR to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure financing. The collaboration essentially reframes computing capacity as an investable asset class.
Under the arrangement, Nvidia could backstop roughly 25% of potential financing deals, which would amount to approximately $125 billion. Goldman is actively seeking investors for these deals while simultaneously preparing for the earnings report.
What the de-risking pattern tells us about market psychology
The Goldman flow expert’s emphasis on the “sequencing” of tech de-risking deserves unpacking. It’s not just that funds are underweight. It’s the order in which they reduced exposure and how quickly it happened during June and July.
The concern Goldman’s analysts have flagged — that underweight fund managers could react aggressively to strong results — cuts both ways. A positive surprise doesn’t just move Nvidia’s stock. It forces a broader re-evaluation of whether the de-risking wave went too far, potentially lifting AMD, Alphabet, and Microsoft, all of which have been trimmed in recent months.
If Nvidia’s results instead raise questions about the sustainability of AI spending or the viability of its new financing model, fund managers who reduced exposure would look prescient, and the pressure would shift to those who maintained overweight bets on the AI buildout continuing at its current pace.
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