Gulf tensions lower ceasefire odds

by Estefano Gomez · 7 min ago

A CIA report on rising military tensions in the Gulf has hit the odds for a ceasefire. The chance of a ceasefire by April 7 is now at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.

The US-Iran conflict and Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz are driving down ceasefire hopes. The April 7 market dropped 2 points to 8% after a morning sell-off. The April 15 market also fell to 18%, showing doubt about quick negotiations. Longer-term markets like April 30 are at 38%, still lower than last week.

Trading volume hit $1,365,780 in USDC across all ceasefire markets. Shifting the April 7 odds by 5 points needs $15,138, indicating moderate market depth. The biggest single move was a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM. Active trading is evident, but there’s no strong belief in a ceasefire soon.

The report’s escalation news cuts short-term ceasefire odds. A YES share at 8¢ for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, but traders need to bet on major diplomatic progress in five days. The current situation doesn’t support that. Longer timelines have slightly better odds, but traders expect ongoing conflict.

Watch for any diplomatic moves or softer rhetoric from leaders like Trump or the Sultan of Oman. These could shift market sentiment toward a ceasefire.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 10.5% YES

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