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Max Kettner, HSBC’s chief multi-asset strategist, is watching for a specific catalyst to flip the script on US Treasuries: a sustained run of disappointing economic data. In his view, “a streak of a couple of weeks uninterrupted of negative economic surprises” could be enough to revive demand for longer-duration government bonds.
What makes Kettner’s positioning interesting is that he isn’t exactly sounding the recession alarm. He described himself as “max bullish” on equities in May 2026, pointing to strong first-quarter corporate results from technology megacaps as the foundation for continued stock market strength.
His comment about UK gilts being a “half-hour trade” amid political volatility in May 2026 also reveals something about his analytical style. Kettner differentiates between durable macro trends and short-lived noise. For him, a few days of bad US economic data isn’t enough. He’s looking for a sustained pattern, something that would force the market to reprice its growth assumptions rather than just react to a single data point.
Kettner’s view provides a specific trigger to watch for. Rather than trying to time the peak in yields based on Federal Reserve guidance or inflation projections, he’s focused on the economic surprise index, essentially whether incoming data is beating or missing consensus forecasts. A sustained run of misses would signal that economists, and by extension the market, have been too optimistic about the trajectory of US growth.
For portfolio managers sitting on the sidelines of the duration trade, that’s a concrete and measurable condition. It converts a vague macro view into something closer to a trading rule: wait for consecutive weeks of negative surprises, then add duration.
Kettner’s simultaneous bullishness on equities suggests he thinks a shallow slowdown scenario remains plausible, which is why he’s framing the Treasury call as conditional rather than definitive.
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