IDF targets 1,000 Hezbollah sites as Trump criticizes Iran

Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Iran as the IDF takes down over 1,000 Hezbollah sites. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April sit at 38.1% YES, up from 14% yesterday.

In the Iran Nuclear Agreement market, the probability of Trump conceding to Iranian demands jumped sharply. This market sat at just 6% a day ago. The sub-market resolving by April 30 remains at 50.1% YES, consistent with yesterday’s levels but down from 65% a week ago. With six days until resolution, traders are pricing in a coin flip.

The Trump’s Agreement to Iranian Demands in April market also shows a 50% YES probability. Yesterday’s surge from 14% to 50% suggests traders are factoring in potential last-minute diplomatic moves. The order book depth is just $119 to move 5 percentage points, meaning this market is highly sensitive to even minor updates.

In the U.S. Invasion of Iran market, there hasn’t been observable trading activity recently, suggesting traders aren’t overreacting to current tensions.

The market trades $1,041,392 face value daily, but actual USDC volume is $42,890. This gap means financial commitment is limited relative to notional interest. The largest single move was an 8-point spike on the Trump agreement market, driven by minimal actual USDC, showing how easily small trades can swing the odds.

The latest IDF actions and Trump’s discontent with Iran are likely to harden the U.S. negotiating stance, making a quick agreement less probable. A YES share at 50¢ pays $1 on resolution, a potential 2x return. That bet requires believing in a breakthrough within six days.

Watch for statements from Trump or Iranian leaders. A change in rhetoric or a diplomatic gesture could shift odds sharply before the April 30 resolution.

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