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Under RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, the Indian rupee slumped to record lows, driven by global shocks from tariffs and the ongoing Iran war. The Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0% YES, reflecting broad skepticism about a near-term price spike to that level.
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed crude prices higher, affecting markets like WTI Crude Oil in April 2026. With 7 days left until resolution, the market isn’t priced for a spike to $160, but the Iran conflict keeps traders on edge. The end of June market for crude hitting $90, with 68 days left, shows similar hesitation as traders weigh the impact of ongoing hostilities.
Trading volumes remain low despite the rupee’s volatility and oil price swings. The WTI market shows no 24-hour face value, pointing to a cautious stance among participants. With thin order books, even modest volume could move these markets significantly.
India imports roughly 85% of its crude oil, so the rupee’s weakness directly widens its current account deficit and puts pressure on Malhotra’s interventions, including forex curbs. The probability of WTI hitting $160 in April remains speculative, but a YES share at current odds would pay out substantially if geopolitical tensions escalate further.
Traders should watch for developments in US-Iran ceasefire talks or OPEC+ production decisions. With only a week left on the April WTI contract, any shift in the conflict could quickly move the odds.
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