Iran agrees to include nuclear program in US negotiations

## Market Snapshot

Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting markets are currently priced at 30.1% YES for a meeting by June 30, 2026. This reflects an increase from 29% in the last 24 hours and 14% over the last week. The Reza Pahlavi entry market remains largely unaffected, holding steady at 2.9% YES.

## Key Takeaways

– Iran’s inclusion of the nuclear file in negotiations suggests potential for diplomatic progress. – Market activity indicates increased likelihood of a US-Iran meeting by the end of June 2026. – Reza Pahlavi’s potential return to Iran remains unlikely, with market odds showing minimal change.

## Article Body

Iran has agreed to include its nuclear program in ongoing negotiations with the United States, marking a significant shift in its diplomatic approach. Previously, Iran had attempted to keep nuclear issues separate from other regional discussions, such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This decision comes amid heightened tensions following military strikes and a fragile ceasefire. The U.S. has maintained a naval blockade and demanded the suspension of Iran’s uranium enrichment. Mediators from countries like Qatar and Oman are actively involved in efforts to prevent further conflict escalation.

## Market Interpretation

The news that Iran is willing to negotiate on its nuclear program appears supportive of a YES outcome for an upcoming US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026. The market impact is considered moderate, with a notable increase in YES pricing observed. This suggests that market participants view this development as a positive step towards potential diplomatic engagement. Conversely, Reza Pahlavi’s entry into Iran remains unaffected, with odds unchanged, indicating the news does not directly impact this scenario.

## What to Watch

Key developments to monitor include official announcements from the White House or the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirming a scheduled meeting. Additionally, the involvement of mediators such as Oman could indicate progress towards setting a meeting date. Any statements from U.S. or Iranian officials rejecting the proposal could reverse the current market sentiment. Continued diplomatic efforts by regional players will also be crucial in determining the likelihood of an upcoming meeting.

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Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting bullish

30% FLAT