Iran conflict disrupts oil market, fuels price surge in Philippines

The ongoing Iran war has sparked significant disruptions in the global energy market, leading to severe price hikes in gasoline and diesel, particularly in the Philippines. The conflict, which intensified after US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, has resulted in Tehran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. This has led to gasoline and diesel prices in the Philippines doubling and tripling, respectively. Market observers suggest that these developments, combined with the increased geopolitical tensions, could push crude oil prices higher, with potential implications for reaching new all-time highs.

The current market pricing for the possibility of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 indicates a 6.8% probability, up from 5% just 24 hours ago. Similarly, the odds for reaching a new high by December 31 have increased to 13.5%. These movements suggest that market participants are increasingly considering scenarios where geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions could drive oil prices upward.

The energy crisis in the Philippines has also led to economic challenges, with inflation rates in March 2026 hitting a 20-month high. The national energy emergency declared by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. aims to mitigate the crisis effects, though transport strikes continue to reflect public unrest over rising fuel costs.

Key Takeaways

• Market pricing suggests a potential increase in crude oil prices due to heightened geopolitical tensions.
• The probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 has increased to 6.8%.
• Economic challenges in the Philippines, including high inflation and transport strikes, reflect the crisis’s impact.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz, as continued blockages could further influence oil supply and pricing. Key actors such as OPEC and the IEA may provide insights into potential production adjustments in response to the ongoing crisis. Additionally, any resolutions or escalations in the Iran conflict could significantly impact market expectations for crude oil prices.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.