3 hours ago
10
Iran has publicly dismissed Trump’s credibility, demanding any agreement to lift the Strait of Hormuz blockade be announced openly by the US. The odds of Trump announcing the blockade’s lift by May 31, 2026, sit at 85.5% YES.
Market reaction
Iran’s statement spurred skepticism about near-term progress on lifting the blockade. Odds over the past week have hovered between 76% and 83%. Daily liquidity is $18,073 in USDC traded, with $9,244 needed to move the market by 5 points. Trading has been stable, though a 3-point spike at 5:08 PM pushed odds from 84% to 87%.
Why it matters
Iran’s insistence on public announcements and free passage for tankers points to ongoing distrust. The odds have stayed in a narrow range, meaning traders don’t see an imminent shift in US policy. With 41 days until the May 31 deadline, the current diplomatic stalemate appears priced in.
What to watch
Low historical volatility in this market suggests traders are not expecting a sudden resolution. At 85.5¢, buying YES offers a 1.21x return if Trump announces the lift by the deadline. That bet requires believing a significant diplomatic breakthrough happens within 41 days.
Watch for public statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi or US Navy leadership. Changes in operational language or a confirmed meeting date could move odds.
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