3 hours ago
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Iran’s Foreign Ministry has denied reports of a second round of Islamabad talks, citing US demands as excessive. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, now sit at 16.5% YES, down from 40% just 24 hours ago.
The denial has hammered the Iran Peace Deals market. Traders price a 19.5% chance of a deal by April 22, roughly half the 40% probability seen a day earlier. With four days left, the largest single move was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM, suggesting rapid repricing in response to the Foreign Ministry statement.
The Iranian Demands market is moving in the same direction. Odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April have slipped to 47.5% YES, down from 62% a day ago. Traders are growing skeptical that any diplomatic progress will happen before month’s end.
The Iran Peace Deals market has $587,370 in daily USDC volume, with $9,449 required to move the price by 5 percentage points. That liquidity depth means the 5-point drop wasn’t driven by a single small bet but by broader repositioning after Iran’s statement. At 16.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a deal materializes, a 5x return. That payout only makes sense if you expect a sudden, unscheduled diplomatic breakthrough in the next four days.
Watch for announcements from Pakistan on new mediation efforts or any shift in rhetoric from the US or Iran. A surprise statement from Trump or Araghchi could move these odds quickly in either direction.
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