Iran imposes toll on Strait of Hormuz, reducing ship transit

Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a controlled toll zone, and the odds of 80 ships transiting the Strait on any day by April 30 have dropped to 4% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

Market reaction

The ships transit market has moved sharply. The 80-ship threshold sat at 20% a week ago and is now at 4% YES. The new toll system reportedly costs ~$2 million per oil tanker, which has deterred many shipping operators and complicated transit logistics during an already fragile ceasefire.

Meanwhile, the Iran Successfully Targets Ships by April 30 market is moving in the opposite direction. Odds of Iran targeting more ships are at 8.8% YES, up from 6% a week ago.

Why it matters

Iran’s approach has shifted from sporadic disruptions to a normalized coercive toll regime. The IRGC now exercises direct control over pricing and access through this chokepoint, with shipping flows already sharply reduced. This is a different kind of threat than ship seizures or military harassment: it creates a permanent cost structure that reshapes routing decisions for tanker operators.

What to watch

Trading volume for the ships transit market is at $794 in USDC per day, which is thin. The cost to move odds by 5 percentage points is $940, meaning even moderate trades can shift the market. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point drop. Watch for IRGC announcements on toll payment protocols and any U.S. Navy moves to provide safe passage. Either could move both markets quickly. A YES share on the 80-ship transit question is priced at 4¢, paying 22x if it resolves YES.

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