Iran mediators seek 45-day ceasefire as April 7 odds drop to 1.1%

2 hours ago 10

Iranian mediators are advocating for a 45-day ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 are low at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% last week.

The market’s reaction is muted. The April 7 market barely moved, and April 15 stands at 6.5% YES, down from 8%. The April 30 market shows more optimism at 17.5% YES, down from 24%. May, June, and December markets show increased expectations of a ceasefire, with odds at 36.5%, 51.5%, and 68.5% YES, respectively.

Total USDC traded was $430,773 in the past 24 hours. The May 31 market saw a 10% drop from 46% YES to 36% YES, suggesting traders expect a catalyst before then. It takes $12,367 to move the April 7 market 5 points, allowing a single player to influence it.

The mediators’ push signals potential de-escalation but lacks confirmed acceptance or formal talks. A YES share in the April 30 market at 17.5¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire is declared, offering a 5.7x return, but traders need substantial diplomatic engagement.

Traders should watch for moves by intermediaries like the Sultan of Oman or Qatar. Trump’s statements on sanctions or diplomatic openings will be crucial.