1 hour ago
16
Iran’s proposal to delay a nuclear agreement in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz comes as Hezbollah refuses talks with Israel. The likelihood of Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 is now at 1% YES.
Traders have reacted sharply. Odds for the April 30 market dropped from 6% just 24 hours ago. The June 30 market is at 24%, down from 26%. The December 31 market trades at 40.5%, up slightly from 40% a day earlier. The pattern is clear: traders are pricing out any rapid resolution on the nuclear front and pushing probability into later deadlines.
The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31 ticked down slightly to 7.5% YES, while the April declaration market sits at 0.2%. The small decline in the war market suggests traders see Iran’s postponement proposal as a diplomatic move, not a provocation.
The uranium surrender market has a combined 24-hour USDC volume of $57,314, showing active interest without strong conviction in either direction. The order book is thin: $9,561 would move the April 30 market by 5 percentage points, meaning large orders could cause outsized price swings.
Iran’s postponement and Hezbollah’s refusal to engage with Israel point to a strategy of using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage rather than making immediate nuclear concessions. This keeps pressure on the US negotiating position and makes near-term resolution unlikely. At 1¢, a YES share on the April 30 uranium surrender deadline barely compensates for the risk absent a major diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for the next round of US-Iran talks or any involvement from international mediators. A joint US-Iran statement or a high-profile diplomatic meeting could move these odds quickly.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) ·