Iran’s Foreign Ministry says framework reached with US but no deal imminent

## Market Snapshot Near-term ceasefire extension markets have collapsed: the May 25 sub-market sits at 6% YES (down from 64% 24 hours ago), and May 26 at 14% YES (down from 70%). The June 30 nuclear deal market holds at 41.5% YES.

## Key Takeaways – Pricing appears consistent with markets interpreting the spokesperson’s “no agreement imminent” statement as a near-term resolution barrier. – The explicit confirmation that Iran is “not currently discussing nuclear issues” suggests the June 30 nuclear deal market may face further downward pressure. – The June 7 ceasefire sub-market at 57.5% YES (down from 86%) appears to reflect residual optimism that a catalyst may emerge within the next two weeks.

## Article Body Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated Sunday that while a framework has been reached with the United States, no agreement is imminent — and that Iran is presently negotiating an end to the ongoing conflict, not nuclear issues. The statement directly contradicts earlier remarks from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who had suggested a deal could be signed as early as Monday. The spokesperson’s comments represent an on-record clarification from Tehran that the two sides remain at an early structural stage. The revelation that nuclear discussions have not yet formally begun is a notable development given the June 30 deadline markets have priced in.

## Market Interpretation The spokesperson’s remarks appear most consistent with NO outcomes on the May 25 and May 26 sub-markets, where pricing has already moved sharply lower. The confirmation that nuclear talks have not commenced is supportive of NO on the June 30 nuclear deal market, though 36 days remain and the impact is rated High. The June 7 sub-market’s relative resilience suggests market participants view a near-term diplomatic catalyst as possible but no longer probable.

## What to Watch Watch for any follow-on statement from U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi clarifying the scope and timeline of current talks. A confirmed next round of negotiations — or its cancellation — would be a high-impact indicator for the June 7 and June 30 markets. The IAEA’s posture on Iran’s enrichment activity may also emerge as a key indicator as the June 30 deadline approaches.

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US-Iran nuclear deal by june bearish

42% FLAT