Iran’s new hardline regime complicates predictions of collapse by May 31

A new, more extreme Iranian regime led by Mojtaba Khamenei has taken control, complicating predictions of regime collapse. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 now sits at 3.9% YES, down from 6% a week ago.

The power shift has also pushed down the prospects of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran. The market for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 sits at 4.5% YES, down from 6% just 24 hours ago. The December 31 market has also dropped to 12.5% YES, from 16% a week ago.

Traders sold both regime-change and Pahlavi-entry contracts after news of Mojtaba Khamenei’s regime tightening its grip. The regime-fall-by-May-31 market requires $21,504 to move the odds 5 points, a reasonably thick book. The June 30 Pahlavi market is thinner at $6,636 to move 5 points, which explains the sharper percentage drop there.

The IRGC-dominated leadership makes any immediate internal uprising or regime change less probable in the near term. A harder-line government with consolidated security apparatus control raises the threshold for successful opposition. At 4¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by May 31, a 25x return on a bet that looks increasingly unlikely without significant internal fractures.

Watch for upcoming negotiations involving parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and any shifts in US or Israeli strategy. Either could change the calculus on regime instability or external intervention.

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