3 hours ago
13
Iranian President Pezeshkian posted on X calling for national unity under a “revolutionary” stance, while Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf resigned from Iran’s negotiating team. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 sit at 4.2% YES, unchanged from a week ago.
Market reaction
Pezeshkian’s post dismisses any moderate-radical divide within the regime. Combined with Ghalibaf’s exit from the negotiating team, this points to power consolidating under hardline elements, which makes internal collapse less likely. The market for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 is at 6.5%, also steady from a week ago.
Why it matters
Pahlavi’s potential entry by December 31 has ticked up to 13.5% YES, from 12% a week ago. Traders appear to see a longer timeline for any opposition movement capable of bringing Pahlavi back. The gap between the June (6.5%) and December (13.5%) markets suggests expectations of a possible catalyst later in the year.
What to watch
Daily trading volume is $27,933 in actual USDC for the regime fall market, and it would take $11,290 to move the price 5 percentage points. The Pahlavi entry market is thinner: $3,975 actual USDC traded daily, with $9,322 needed for a 5-point move. Both markets are susceptible to swings from large single trades.
Pezeshkian’s assertion of unity under the Supreme Leader works against any near-term regime collapse, which the stable odds reflect. At 4.2¢, a YES share on the regime fall market pays 23.8x. For that bet to make sense, you’d need credible evidence of widespread military defections or major unrest within the next month.
Watch for statements from IRGC leaders and any shifts in U.S. diplomatic language, particularly signs of back-channel negotiations or changes in military posture.
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