Iran’s revolutionary guard claimed it destroyed three US F-35 fighter jets and damaged three more in a missile strike on al azraq air base

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has reportedly claimed responsibility for a missile strike that allegedly destroyed three U.S. F-35 fighter jets and damaged three more at Al Azraq Air Base in Jordan. This claim, broadcast by the IRGC, marks a significant escalation in the ongoing regional conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel. The base, officially known as Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, has been a key location for U.S. and coalition forces in the region. However, conflicting reports from Jordanian and U.S. sources dispute the extent of the damage, casting doubt on the IRGC’s assertions.

The news comes amid heightened tensions and reciprocal military actions in the Middle East, with Iran’s use of ballistic missiles representing a direct attack on U.S.-partnered military installations. This development has implications for the likelihood of Iran imposing a full airspace closure as a response to perceived security threats. Currently, market participants appear to be reacting to this event with varied expectations across different timelines for potential Iranian airspace closures.

Key Takeaways

• The claim by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard suggests a significant escalation in the Iran–US–Israel regional conflict, impacting military and geopolitical dynamics.
• Current market pricing indicates a low likelihood of Iran implementing a full airspace closure by July 31, with only a 4% probability reflected in the market.
• Longer-term expectations suggest increased probabilities, with the August 31 timeline reflecting a 30.5% chance of airspace closure, consistent with heightened regional instability.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor official statements from key actors such as the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran and Iranian State Television for any communications regarding airspace status. Developments in the regional military conflict, including any U.S. retaliatory strikes, could influence market perceptions of security threats and potential airspace closures. Additionally, reports from international news agencies like Reuters or AP confirming the strike’s details may impact pricing and the perceived likelihood of Iran’s response measures.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.