Iran strikes US bases in Jordan, Kuwait amid escalating conflict

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced that it successfully executed strikes on U.S. military bases located in Jordan, Kuwait, and other countries. This development comes amid the ongoing 2026 Iran–U.S. conflict, which has seen a significant escalation in military activities. The IRGC’s statement is part of Iran’s broader Operation True Promise 4 campaign, targeting U.S. installations in response to recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian soil and a failed ceasefire negotiation over the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has already involved multiple regional players, including Israel and several Gulf states allied with the U.S.

The confirmation of these strikes suggests a strategic shift by Iran towards more direct and expansive military engagements, potentially escalating tensions in the region. The targeted U.S. bases reportedly suffered damage to key military assets, including F-35 hangars and air defense systems. Markets have reacted to these developments, with increased probabilities assigned to further Iranian military actions against Gulf states.

Key Takeaways

• The IRGC’s announcement of strikes on U.S. bases appears to indicate an escalation in the Iran-U.S. conflict.
• Market pricing suggests a significant increase in the likelihood of further Iranian military actions against Gulf states.
• The most impacted sub-market is for July 19, with a 93.4% probability of Iran conducting military action against a Gulf state.

What to Watch

As tensions continue to rise, the actions of key regional actors, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will be crucial in determining the conflict’s trajectory. Any further military engagements or diplomatic maneuvers could influence market perceptions and probabilities of future events. Watch for statements from Iranian and U.S. officials, as well as potential interventions by international diplomats seeking to de-escalate the situation. Markets may adjust to new developments, especially if peace talks are resumed or further military actions are confirmed.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.