4 hours ago
15
Iran and the US have effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, blocking all vessel traffic. The likelihood of UK warships passing through by April 30 is now at 7.5% YES.
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 has dropped to 59.5% YES, down from 60% just a day ago. The UK warship market sits at 7.5% YES. The market for Trump announcing an end to the blockade by May 31 holds steady at 77.5% YES.
Why it matters
Trading volume in the Strait of Hormuz market is at $32,234 in USDC. The UK warship market, by contrast, needs only $427 to move five points, making it prone to volatility. The largest single move was a four-point drop in the Strait of Hormuz market at 6:46 PM, a quick trader reaction to the blockade news.
The blockade’s persistence suggests a hardening stance from both sides, which lowers the probability of a near-term resolution. For traders considering a YES position, buying at 7.5¢ offers a 18x return if UK warships do pass through. But with only 14 days left, that bet requires expecting rapid de-escalation.
What to watch
US-Iran talks are scheduled for this weekend. Any shift in diplomatic language or progress in negotiations could move these odds quickly.
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