3 hours ago
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Iranian military advisor Mohsen Rezaei’s remarks threatening to sink US warships have pushed odds lower on the uranium transfer market. US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 is at 22.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Rezaei’s comments amount to a rejection of extending the current ceasefire and signal readiness to escalate. Traders have responded by marking down the probability of a near-term diplomatic resolution. The May 31 market sits at 22.5%, down from 20% a week ago.
Meanwhile, the market for Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium by April 30 is at 40.8% YES, up from 25% a day ago. Some traders apparently see a short-term deal as more viable despite the rhetoric. The biggest expected catalyst falls between May 31 and June 30, where a 26-point jump in implied probability suggests traders expect a possible shift in that window.
Daily volume on the uranium market is $35,523 in actual USDC, with $32,541 needed to move the price by 5 points. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike at 3:07 AM. Trading has been relatively stable but clearly sensitive to statements like Rezaei’s.
Rezaei is a tier-3 source, and traders often treat this kind of rhetoric as noise rather than a genuine policy shift. A YES share at 22.5¢ pays $1 if the US obtains Iranian uranium by May 31, a 5x return. That payout requires confidence in either a diplomatic breakthrough or a successful US operation.
Watch for CENTCOM activity and IAEA reports as the next concrete indicators. Any confirmation of US possession or operational success would move these odds sharply. The Pentagon’s next briefing is the most likely near-term catalyst.
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