Iranian authorities flogged two women detained during January’s protests, rights groups report

Iranian authorities have reportedly flogged two women detained during January’s protests 31 times each before transferring them to prison to serve custodial sentences, according to rights groups. This event is part of an ongoing crackdown on the 2025–2026 protest wave that has seen widespread repression, including mass arrests and internet restrictions. The use of corporal punishment indicates an escalation in punitive measures by Iranian authorities, aiming to deter further dissent. The severity of these actions could potentially incite further unrest, as the regime continues to face significant internal opposition.

Key Takeaways

• The flogging appears to be consistent with an escalation in the Iranian regime’s punitive measures against protesters.
• Market pricing suggests an increase in the perceived likelihood of regime instability or change as a result of such actions.
• The severe punishment of protesters may galvanize opposition and increase the likelihood of continued unrest.

What to Watch

Observers will monitor the potential for increased protests and whether this incident leads to further unrest across Iran. Key indicators would include any notable defections within the regime, shifts in leadership, or a significant rise in protest numbers. Developments that could be consistent with a NO outcome include successful crackdowns by Iranian authorities or public reaffirmations of loyalty to the current regime. Markets will be looking for any signs of a power vacuum or leadership change that may increase the probability of significant political shifts in Iran.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.