4 hours ago
16
Iranian mediators are in Turkey for talks aimed at advancing peace amid the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 is at 31.5% YES.
Market reaction
Odds for a permanent peace deal by April 30 have risen to 44.5% YES, up from 17% a week ago. Turkey’s active mediation role is the likely driver. The May 31 market is at 61.5% YES.
Ceasefire markets are also moving. A ceasefire extension by April 21 is at 8% YES, but the April 30 market is at 6.5% YES, suggesting traders see a real chance of a diplomatic breakthrough within two weeks.
The uranium stockpile market has also shifted. Odds of Iran agreeing to surrender its stockpile by April 30 are at 47.3% YES, up from 13% a week ago, a sign that traders expect peace talks to pull in nuclear issues.
Why it matters
Volume across peace deal markets hit $698,114 in actual USDC traded in the last 24 hours. The depth required to move the April 22 market 5 percentage points is $16,317, which points to institutional-grade liquidity. If Turkey’s mediation produces concrete proposals, odds for a peace deal or extended ceasefire could climb further.
What to watch
Watch for statements from Turkey and updates from the mediators. Any endorsement or proposal from a key actor like the Sultan of Oman or Qatar could move these markets sharply.
At 31.5¢, a YES bet pays $1, a 6.67x return if resolved. The payout reflects meaningful but risky potential.
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