3 hours ago
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The Israeli Broadcasting Authority confirmed there are no ceasefire instructions for Lebanon. The market for a ceasefire by April 30 sits at 65.8% YES, up from 29% a week ago.
Traders in the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 market have seen odds rise to 83.3% YES, up from 66% just 24 hours ago. The April 15 market is dead at 1.4% YES. The term structure shows traders pricing in a catalyst by April 30, with a 15-point gap between the April 30 and June 30 sub-markets.
In the Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 market, odds are at 79% YES, up from 44% a day ago. The May 31 sub-market is at 88.0% YES. The largest move is a 46-point rise between April 17 and April 30 expectations.
Daily USDC volume is $368,656 for April 30 ceasefire odds and $17,048 for the suspension of the offensive. It takes only $2,217 to move the latter market 5 points, meaning a single large trade can shift the price meaningfully.
Israel’s rejection of ceasefire proposals complicates any near-term de-escalation. Netanyahu has turned down ceasefire proposals in ongoing talks with Lebanon, prioritizing military objectives over diplomatic options. For traders, YES shares at 65.8¢ pay $1 if a ceasefire occurs by April 30, a 1.47x return. Buying at that price means betting on a major diplomatic shift within two weeks.
Watch for statements from Netanyahu or IDF announcements, particularly any signals of new military actions or changes in operational posture. Either could move these markets sharply.
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